Tomorrow is the oral
argument in the Aereo case. There is a good reason why the Supreme Court will reverse the Second Circuit. Moreover, it has
already indicated that it will do so when it granted cert.
First, the reason for the Supreme Court reversal: the 2d Cir. Opinion in Aereo is “nuts,” as one respected West
Coast academic called it last year at the 21st Annual Fordham IP conference.
Of course, there are many more detailed arguments in the various briefs in the Supreme Court. Moreover, that is not to say that there are no arguments on the other side. Very clever people have in fact come up with them. In fact, we will go through all the arguments in the last copyright session on Friday, the 25th, of the Fordham IP Conference, April 24-25, fordhamipconference.com
Of course, there are many more detailed arguments in the various briefs in the Supreme Court. Moreover, that is not to say that there are no arguments on the other side. Very clever people have in fact come up with them. In fact, we will go through all the arguments in the last copyright session on Friday, the 25th, of the Fordham IP Conference, April 24-25, fordhamipconference.com
Second, how has the Court has
already indicated that it will reverse when it granted cert.? Justice Alito had recused himself which meant that the Court was left with a possible 4-4 tie. They could have waited to
grant cert. on the 9th Cir. case or ones in the First Circuit or D.C.
Circuit. If there was any chance of a
tie, that would have been the prudent thing to do because after a tie they could not
let the situation remain where there are injunctions in some areas of the
country and not others. They would have to take another case.
Before risking a massive
waste of judicial time, I think the CJ Roberts and his colleagues must have been
confident that there were five votes on one side. The question then is which side. I don’t
see five justices being comfortable enough with the correctness of Aereo’s
position on just the cert. papers. But
I can easily see five justices comfortable with voting to reverse before
granting cert.
I told my students, and anyone else who would listen, after the Second Circuit decision came down that the Supreme Court would grant cert. and reverse, assuming no en banc rehearing. Alito’s recusal just makes me even more confident that this will happen.
I told my students, and anyone else who would listen, after the Second Circuit decision came down that the Supreme Court would grant cert. and reverse, assuming no en banc rehearing. Alito’s recusal just makes me even more confident that this will happen.
HOLD ON! It now turns out
that Alito is no longer recusing himself in ABC. Some might think this indicates he has come
back to break a tie. I don’t think
so. He has also rescinded his recusal in
POM Wonderful v Coca Cola. There was no
tie issue there as Justice Breyer had also recused himself leaving only seven
justices. In fact, by rescinding his
recusal Alito has made a tie possible in that case. (The Court is very likely to reverse the 9th
Circuit In POM Wonderful, with no tie likely.) In
any case, when the Court granted cert. in Aereo they did not know Alito would rescind
his recusal. So I think my analysis stands.
I have a pretty good
record on predictions. I don’t predict
every case but when I do I have only been wrong once, in New York Times v.
Tasini, 533 U.S. 483 (2001). In Grokster, MGM Studios, Inc. v. Grokster, Ltd., 45 U.S. 913, after the District Court for the Northern District
of California found for Grokster in in
2003, I stated at the next Fordham IP Conference that I hoped that the 9th
Circuit would affirm because then the Supreme Court would grant cert. and reverse. After the 9th Circuit obliged me
and affirmed, I guaranteed in a talk at the annual meeting of the Copyright
Society of the U.S.A., that the Supreme Court would grant cert and
reverse. At the time I encountered numerous people skeptical about the ability to predict the Supreme Court, and my Grokster predicition in particular. As a result, I had numerous
bets for steak dinners related to my prediction with a variety of copyright
players including ones from EFF, the Copyright Society, the International Intellectual
Property Alliance, and a former congressman from northern Virginia. So far, no one has paid up.
If the Supreme Court does not reverse the Second Circuit, it would mean that there has been a serious disturbance in the Force. I don't expect that will happen..
If the Supreme Court does not reverse the Second Circuit, it would mean that there has been a serious disturbance in the Force. I don't expect that will happen..